Stochastic models of Thermal convection: An extended Mc Cready theory and a simulation tool


R. Mathar,


        Classical McCready theory is based on a deterministic model. Due to uncertain information during a cross country flight this seems to be rather questionable. The present paper deals with stochastic models which are more appropriate to describe realistic convectional patterns. In a first step the classical theory is extended to the case that the intensity of the next used lift can be characterized by a random variable A. The optimal speed ring setting leading to minimal expected time then is 1/E(1/A), where E denotes the expectation. As a full stochastic model, including both random intensities of ups and downs and their extension, we suggest a Markov jump process. An optimal strategy is unknown for this model. However, a simulation tool has been developed to compare the efficiency of different tactics under user determined probabilistic convection profiles of the above type.

BibTEX Reference Entry 

	author = {Rudolf Mathar},
	title = "Stochastic models of Thermal convection: An extended {M}c {C}ready theory and a simulation tool",
	pages = "113-117",
	journal = "Technical Soaring",
	volume = "20",
	number = "4",
	year = 1996,


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